★ The Polls ★
Every poll has some wiggle room. The dot shows the reported result. The line shows the margin of error — the reasonable range around that number. These ranges don't include every possible source of error, and they shouldn't be used to call the race a statistical tie just because two ranges overlap.
SAND
+4
| Sponsor | Not disclosed |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Independent public polling series; not sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee or outside group. |
| Field dates | Sept. 14, 2026–Sept. 16, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 831 LV |
| Collection mode | Mobile text responses and landline interviews |
| Sample frame | Likely general-election voters |
| Weighting | Age, gender, race, education, congressional district, and community type, to reflect the likely 2026 general electorate |
| Ballot wording | If the November 3rd general election for Governor of Iowa were held today, who would you vote for? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±3.39 points |
SAND
+3.4
| Sponsor | Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Conservative/Republican-aligned policy organization. |
| Field dates | Sept. 9, 2026–Sept. 11, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 500 LV |
| Collection mode | Live phone and SMS |
| Sample frame | Probabilistic survey of known registered voters, weighted to a likely general-election voter universe |
| Weighting | Weighted to a likely general-election voter universe (full detail in published questionnaire) |
| Ballot wording | If the general election for Governor was held today, and you had to make a choice, who would you vote for? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±4.38 points |
SAND
+11
| Sponsor | Not disclosed |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Not stated in the released document. No client or sponsor is named. |
| Field dates | Sept. 3, 2026–Sept. 8, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 2169 RV |
| Collection mode | Online, via YouGov's web-based survey system |
| Sample frame | Stratified random sample of Iowa registered voters, contacted by text message and interviewed online |
| Weighting | Gender, age, in-state geography, party registration, imputed education, and 2024 vote choice (raking) |
| Ballot wording | Who [did / will / would] you vote for in the election for Governor of Iowa? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±3.5 points |
SAND
+3
| Sponsor | Nexstar Media |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Media company; not a partisan or campaign sponsor. |
| Field dates | Aug. 31, 2026–Sept. 1, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 750 LV |
| Collection mode | MMS/text-to-web voter-file outreach, supplemented by PureSpectrum panel interviews |
| Sample frame | Voter file plus probability-based online panel, matched back to the voter file |
| Weighting | Gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region (Census + voter file targets) |
| Ballot wording | If the election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Credibility interval | ±3.6 points |
SAND
+5
| Sponsor | Wedgewood Polls (self-funded) |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Pollster states the survey was independently conducted and funded by itself; no outside client is named. |
| Field dates | Aug. 27, 2026–Aug. 29, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 600 LV |
| Collection mode | Online opt-in panel |
| Sample frame | Iowa adults recruited through an online opt-in panel, screened for registration and vote likelihood; panel vendor not named |
| Weighting | Recalled 2024 presidential vote (benchmarked to the pollster's own projected 2026 electorate model), then demographic raking on age, gender, race and education; design effect of 1.3 applied |
| Ballot wording | Not published |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Credibility interval | ±4.6 points |
Why this poll is excluded from summary figures: Wedgewood disclosed its sample size, online collection method and general weighting approach. It did not identify the panel provider, publish the ballot wording or provide a checkable target for its projected 2026 electorate. The poll remains visible but does not count toward Iowa First Check's summary calculations.
SAND
+4.2
| Sponsor | Suffolk University Political Research Center |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Academic research center; not a partisan or campaign sponsor. |
| Field dates | Aug. 20, 2026–Aug. 23, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 500 LV |
| Collection mode | Live telephone interviews (landline and cellphone) |
| Sample frame | Probability-proportionate-to-size random-digit sample, with demographic and geographic quotas based on public population, election, and registration data |
| Weighting | Demographic and geographic quotas (public population/election/registration data) |
| Ballot wording | For governor, the candidates certified for the ballot are... At this point if the election were today, for whom would you vote or toward whom do you lean? |
| Question order | Rotated candidate order |
| Margin of error | ±4.4 points |
SAND
+5.7
| Sponsor | Nexstar Media |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Media company; not a partisan or campaign sponsor. |
| Field dates | Aug. 2, 2026–Aug. 4, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 712 LV |
| Collection mode | Voter-file text-to-web (Aristotle), a probability-based text-to-web panel, and additional matched panel interviews (Consensus Strategies, PureSpectrum) |
| Sample frame | Voter file plus probability-based online panel, matched back to the voter file |
| Weighting | Gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region (Census + voter file targets) |
| Ballot wording | If the election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Credibility interval | ±3.7 points |
SAND
+9
| Sponsor | Fox News |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Conducted jointly by a Democratic firm (Beacon Research) and a Republican firm (Shaw & Company Research); sponsored by Fox News, a media outlet. |
| Field dates | June 23, 2026–June 27, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 1003 RV |
| Collection mode | 104 landline, 662 cellphone live interviews, and 237 online via text-message invitation |
| Sample frame | Random statewide voter-file sample, probability-proportionate-to-size |
| Weighting | Age, race, education, and geography |
| Ballot wording | If the Iowa election for governor were today, would you vote for: [ROTATE NAMES] |
| Question order | Rotated candidate order |
| Margin of error | ±3 points |
SAND
+1
| Sponsor | The New York Times |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Media company; not a partisan or campaign sponsor. |
| Field dates | June 15, 2026–June 27, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 600 LV |
| Collection mode | Live telephone plus additional voter-file-matched cellphone outreach |
| Sample frame | Response-adjusted, stratified, probability-proportionate-to-size sample from the L2 voter file |
| Weighting | Not disclosed |
| Ballot wording | If this November's general election for Iowa governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±4.7 points |
SAND
+4.3
| Sponsor | Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Conservative/Republican-aligned policy organization. |
| Field dates | June 16, 2026–June 19, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 600 LV |
| Collection mode | Live phone and SMS |
| Sample frame | Probabilistic survey of known registered voters, weighted to the likely general-election voter universe |
| Weighting | Weighted to the likely general-election voter universe (full detail in published questionnaire) |
| Ballot wording | If the general election for Governor was held today, who would you vote for? |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±4 points |
SAND
+9
| Sponsor | Rob Sand for Iowa (campaign) |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Candidate-sponsored: commissioned directly by the Sand campaign. |
| Field dates | April 23, 2026–April 28, 2026 |
| Sample & population | n/a LV |
| Collection mode | Not disclosed |
| Sample frame | Not disclosed |
| Weighting | Not disclosed |
| Ballot wording | Not published |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | Not published |
Why this poll is excluded from summary figures: This Sand campaign poll is the earliest publicly released Sand-Lahn matchup we found. The campaign memo provides the result and field dates but leaves out several details needed to evaluate the poll. It remains visible in the historical record and does not count toward the summary calculations.
★ Movement Over Time ★
Our polling average changes when a new qualifying poll is released. Switch views to see the reconstructed average or the individual polls behind it.
View the reconstructed history as a table
| Public release date | Poll(s) added | Qualifying polls | Sand avg. | Lahn avg. | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | Cygnal | 1 | 47.7% | 43.4% | Sand +4.3 |
| July 1, 2026 | Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research, Siena College Research Institute | 3 | 49.4% | 45.0% | Sand +4.4 |
| Aug. 6, 2026 | Emerson College Polling | 4 | 48.9% | 43.9% | Sand +5.0 |
| Aug. 26, 2026 | Suffolk University | 5 | 48.4% | 43.8% | Sand +4.7 |
| Sept. 3, 2026 | Emerson College Polling | 6 | 48.6% | 44.5% | Sand +4.1 |
| Sept. 9, 2026 | YouGov | 7 | 48.9% | 43.2% | Sand +5.7 |
| Sept. 11, 2026 | Cygnal | 8 | 48.7% | 43.5% | Sand +5.1 |
| Sept. 16, 2026 | co/efficient | 9 | 48.1% | 43.2% | Sand +4.9 |
View this chart as a table
| Pollster | Field dates | Population | Sand | Lahn | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | April 23, 2026–April 28, 2026 | LV | 50% | 41% | Excluded |
| Cygnal | June 16, 2026–June 19, 2026 | LV | 47.7% | 43.4% | Included |
| Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research | June 23, 2026–June 27, 2026 | RV | 53% | 44% | Included |
| Siena College Research Institute | June 15, 2026–June 27, 2026 | LV | 48% | 47% | Included |
| Emerson College Polling | Aug. 2, 2026–Aug. 4, 2026 | LV | 48.4% | 42.69% | Included |
| Suffolk University | Aug. 20, 2026–Aug. 23, 2026 | LV | 47.8% | 43.6% | Included |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug. 27, 2026–Aug. 29, 2026 | LV | 51% | 46% | Excluded |
| Emerson College Polling | Aug. 31, 2026–Sept. 1, 2026 | LV | 49% | 46% | Included |
| YouGov | Sept. 3, 2026–Sept. 8, 2026 | RV | 50% | 39% | Included |
| Cygnal | Sept. 9, 2026–Sept. 11, 2026 | LV | 47.8% | 44.4% | Included |
| co/efficient | Sept. 14, 2026–Sept. 16, 2026 | LV | 46% | 42% | Included |
★ Straw Polls and Other Snapshots ★
Some events let visitors cast a ballot for fun. Those results can be interesting, but they do not measure Iowa voters the way a scientific poll tries to.
Iowa State Fair Straw Poll — 2026 Iowa State Fair · Lahn/Wulf 63.68%, Sand/Muhlbauer 36.32% Unscientific straw poll
| Organizer | Iowa Secretary of State |
|---|---|
| Event | 2026 Iowa State Fair |
| Participation | Voluntary and self-selected |
| Participants in this contest | 2,759 |
| Lahn/Wulf | 1,757 votes — 63.68% |
| Sand/Muhlbauer | 1,002 votes — 36.32% |
| Representative sample | No |
| Weighting | None published |
| Margin of error | None |
| Included in Iowa First Check average | No |
Why this is excluded: Fairgoers chose whether to participate. They were not selected to represent Iowa's statewide electorate. The result tells us how the people who took part voted. It cannot reliably tell us where the governor's race stood across Iowa.
Before the nominees were selected
Earlier in the cycle, pollsters tested Rob Sand against U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, who ran for the Republican nomination before Zach Lahn won it on June 2, 2026. These are not Sand-Lahn polls and are kept out of every figure above.
Echelon Insights — April 9, 2026 · Sand 51%, Feenstra 39% Methods published
| Sponsor | NetChoice |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | NetChoice is a technology-industry trade association with a policy interest in the race, not a neutral sponsor. |
| Field dates | April 3, 2026–April 9, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 377 LV |
| Collection mode | Online and text message |
| Sample frame | Not disclosed |
| Weighting | Not disclosed |
| Ballot wording | Not published |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±6.6 points |
Why this poll is excluded from summary figures: This is a Sand-vs-Feenstra matchup, tested before Iowa's June 2, 2026 primary made Lahn the Republican nominee. It belongs to the 'before the nominees were selected' series and must never be counted in Sand-Lahn summary calculations.
GBAO — March 16, 2026 · Sand 50%, Feenstra 42% Methods published
| Sponsor | ModSquad PAC |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | Democratic-aligned firm and sponsor (ModSquad PAC supports moderate Democratic candidates). |
| Field dates | March 10, 2026–March 16, 2026 |
| Sample & population | 1200 LV |
| Collection mode | Not disclosed |
| Sample frame | Not disclosed |
| Weighting | Not disclosed |
| Ballot wording | Not published |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±2.8 points |
Why this poll is excluded from summary figures: This is a Sand-vs-Feenstra matchup, tested before Iowa's June 2, 2026 primary made Lahn the Republican nominee. It belongs to the 'before the nominees were selected' series and must never be counted in Sand-Lahn summary calculations.
Z to A Research — Oct. 13, 2025 · Sand 45%, Feenstra 43% Some details missing
| Sponsor | Not disclosed |
|---|---|
| Sponsor alignment | No client named in the released memo ('TO: Interested Parties'). |
| Field dates | Oct. 9, 2025–Oct. 13, 2025 |
| Sample & population | 1351 LV |
| Collection mode | Online survey, recruited via SMS and targeted online advertising |
| Sample frame | Iowa likely 2026 midterm voters recruited via SMS/targeted online ads |
| Weighting | Not disclosed |
| Ballot wording | Not published |
| Question order | Not disclosed |
| Margin of error | ±2.67 points |
Why this poll is excluded from summary figures: This is a Sand-vs-Feenstra matchup, tested before Iowa's June 2, 2026 primary made Lahn the Republican nominee. It belongs to the 'before the nominees were selected' series and must never be counted in Sand-Lahn summary calculations.
★ Margin of Error, in Plain English ★
Every result comes with some wiggle room.
Suffolk's weighted sample put Sand at 47.8% and Lahn at 43.6%, a difference of 4.2 points. That is the poll's best estimate of voter opinion during its field dates.
With a margin of error of ±4.4 points, Sand's individual polling range is about 43.4%–52.2%. Lahn's is about 39.2%–48.0%. The ranges overlap, so the poll cannot rule out a tie or a Lahn lead caused by sampling error.
Pairing the farthest endpoints would put Lahn ahead by 4.6 points, but that is only a rough illustration. The two results came from the same respondents, so calculating uncertainty around the lead requires separate math that Suffolk did not publish.
Pollsters publish the reported percentages because they are what the weighted sample found. The margin of error shows the uncertainty around that finding. Numbers near the reported result are more plausible than numbers at the far ends of the range.
What we check before using a poll
Before a poll appears above, we look for:
- Who conducted it, and who paid for it
- When it was in the field, and who was surveyed (adults, registered voters, or likely voters)
- How respondents were selected and how interviews were conducted
- How the sample was weighted
- What question was asked, and in what order
- Whether complete results or crosstabs were released
A partisan or campaign sponsor gets disclosed, not disqualified. Missing information about recruitment, weighting, or the ballot question itself counts for more, since it makes the result harder to evaluate at all.
We don't reduce any of this to a letter grade or star rating. The statuses used throughout this page describe what we know, not a score:
- Methods published — We found the poll's sample, dates and methodology.
- Some details missing — The result is public, but part of the methodology is unavailable.
- Campaign-funded — A candidate or affiliated organization paid for the poll.
- Key details missing — Some methodology is public, but essential pieces are missing.
Polls give us a read on the race. The count that decides it comes on Election Day.
Make sure you're registered, make a plan and vote.
Get voter ready →Check our work
Each poll links to its original release, methodology or crosstabs when available. We update this page as new polling is reviewed. The reviewed-through date appears near the top.
Registered-voter and likely-voter polls measure different groups. Their results can move as opinions and turnout expectations change.
Found an error in a figure or a source link? See our corrections policy or contact us.